Advanced metrics reveal a nuanced story about Florida State's (FSU) performance, offering a more comprehensive view than traditional win-loss records. While FSU's record stands at 4-4, delving into specific statistics provides a more nuanced understanding of their strengths and weaknesses.
Standard Statistics vs. Tempo and Style:
Standard metrics like Total Yards and Points Per Game fall short, as they don't account for tempo and playing style. For instance, Yards Per Play (YPP) offers a more insightful measure of efficiency, valued by FSU's staff. Despite its surface-level nature, YPP provides a clear picture of efficiency, though it doesn't fully capture explosiveness or situational success.
Expected Points Added (EPA):
EPA, a formula based on down/distance/field position, projects a team's likelihood of scoring. Positive EPA indicates increased scoring chances, while negative EPA suggests decreased chances. This metric highlights the impact of each play on the team's overall success.
FSU's Performance Analysis:
FSU ranks among the Top 20 P4 teams in both YPP and YPP Allowed, with 6.1 YPP and 5.0 YPP Allowed, respectively. The defense's strong performance against Wake Forest (3.48 YPP Allowed) and Alabama (4.74 YPP Allowed) bolsters its ranking. However, the offense has been inconsistent, with multiple games under 6 YPP and above 6.5 YPP.
Offensive and Defensive EPA:
FSU's Offensive EPA/Per Game stands at 8.76, placing it in the Top 25 P4 teams. Conversely, the Defensive EPA/Per Game is -0.27, indicating a need for improvement. When considering both metrics, FSU emerges as a quality team on a per-play basis, falling into the above-average-good range.
Comparison with Top Teams:
FSU is clustered with teams like Miami, Clemson, and Pittsburgh, showcasing its competitive standing. However, its record against P4 opponents is 2-4, and it has struggled against teams below its range, with a 1-2 record. The FEI metric further supports FSU's position, ranking it 26th nationally, though it includes G6 teams.
Conclusion:
In summary, FSU's advanced metrics paint a more accurate picture of its performance, indicating a team with potential above average. While it may not be an elite P4 team, it demonstrates a competitive edge, especially against P4 opponents. The analysis highlights the importance of considering various statistics for a comprehensive understanding of a team's capabilities.
